Liverpool have been given a 6.1% chance of winning the 2026/27 Champions League by the Opta supercomputer.
That makes the Reds the sixth favourites to lift the trophy.
Opta also gives Liverpool a 13.3% chance of reaching the final.
And honestly?
I think Liverpool can beat those numbers.
Liverpool are being taken seriously
The Champions League is about as difficult as it gets.
There are 36 teams in the league phase, and Liverpool are competing against the likes of Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Barcelona, Real Madrid and the reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain.
So being ranked sixth in Opta’s predictions is hardly an insult.
In fact, it shows that Liverpool are still considered one of Europe’s genuine contenders.
Opta’s latest projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the competition. Arsenal are the favourites with a 20.9% chance of winning it, followed by Bayern Munich at 19.4%.
Manchester City are third at 12.3%, while Barcelona are on 8.2% and PSG are given a 7.1% chance of retaining the trophy.
Liverpool come next on 6.1%.
But 6.1% doesn’t tell the whole story
The interesting figure for me is actually the 13.3% chance of Liverpool reaching the final.
That’s more than double their probability of winning the competition.
And that makes sense.
Liverpool don’t necessarily need to be the best team in Europe to reach the final.
They need to navigate the league phase, get a favourable knockout draw, find their best form at the right time and then win the big matches.
That’s football.
A supercomputer can run thousands of simulations, but it can’t reproduce the atmosphere of Anfield on a European night.
It can’t measure momentum.
It can’t measure belief.
And it certainly can’t measure what happens when Liverpool suddenly click at the business end of the season.
Iraola could make the difference
This is another reason why I’m not completely convinced by the prediction.
Liverpool have a new manager in Andoni Iraola.
Opta’s Premier League projections before the season began already viewed Liverpool as one of the strongest teams in England, giving them a 9.2% chance of winning the Premier League and making them the third favourites behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
But Iraola is still learning about his players.
The players are still learning about Iraola.
And the team is still evolving.
We’ve already seen encouraging signs.
Liverpool have added Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Ronald Araújo and Jérémy Jacquet to the squad over the last couple of transfer windows, while players such as Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai are beginning to look increasingly important to the new side.
There is still plenty of room for this team to improve.
Imagine Liverpool at their best
This is where I become more optimistic.
Imagine Isak fully settled into the team.
Imagine Wirtz finding his best form.
Imagine Barcola becoming completely comfortable in Iraola’s system.
Imagine Gakpo continuing to create chances like he did against Ipswich.
And then you’ve got Liverpool’s experience.
Virgil van Dijk.
Alisson.
Trent is gone, Salah is gone and this is undoubtedly a different Liverpool side.
But there are still players who have experienced Champions League nights at the highest level.
And that matters.
Liverpool have European pedigree
Opta themselves point out that Liverpool have made three Champions League finals in five seasons between 2017/18 and 2021/22.
That’s a remarkable record.
Liverpool know what these nights feel like.
They know how quickly a European tie can change.
And they know how to handle the pressure of knockout football.
Last season, Liverpool were actually the team Opta initially predicted to win the Champions League.
They eventually went out in the quarter-finals to PSG, who went on to win the competition.
So even Opta’s own model got it wrong last time.
That’s why I wouldn’t be losing any sleep over a 6.1% prediction.
Can Liverpool win it?
Absolutely.
Does that mean I expect them to?
Not necessarily.
There are some outstanding teams in this competition and Liverpool still have weaknesses to address.
The midfield needs to remain balanced.
The defence needs to become more consistent.
The new attacking players need time to develop their understanding.
And Iraola has to prove he can manage a Champions League campaign alongside the demands of the Premier League.
But that’s what makes this season exciting.
Liverpool aren’t expected to be the favourites.
They don’t have to carry that pressure.
They can go into Europe knowing that Arsenal, Bayern, City and PSG are being placed ahead of them.
Let them have the pressure.
I’d take 6.1% right now
If somebody offered me a guaranteed 6.1% chance of Liverpool winning the Champions League, I’d probably take it.
But I also think there’s a very good chance this Liverpool team could outperform the model.
Because this is a new Liverpool.
A new manager.
New attacking options.
New defenders.
And potentially a completely different level of football once everything starts to click.
13.3% to reach the final.
6.1% to win it.
That’s what the Opta supercomputer says.
Me?
I’m not ready to write Liverpool off.
Get them to Anfield on a European night and let’s see what happens.
Jamie (The Kopite View)
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